Photo: baodautu.vn
A study released by China Trading Desk on January 8 shows that South Korea, Vietnam, and Thailand, in that order, are expected to be the top three overseas destinations for Chinese tourists this year. The ranking reflects strong transport connectivity with China and the availability of well-established tourist attractions. Long-haul destinations such as Europe and Africa are also attracting growing interest from Chinese travellers.
China Trading Desk forecasts that Chinese tourists will make between 165 and 175 million outbound trips in 2026, an increase of 10-20 million journeys compared with an estimated 155 million trips in 2025.
In 2025, mainland China was Vietnam’s largest source market, with 5.28 million arrivals, accounting for around 25 per cent of total international visitors. By comparison, Thailand welcomed approximately 4.5 million Chinese tourists during the same year.
By contrast, travel demand from China to Japan is expected to decline sharply in 2026. China Trading Desk estimates that Japan will receive between 4.8 million and 5.8 million Chinese visitors, nearly 50 per cent lower than the 9.3 million recorded in 2025.
Monthly arrivals to Japan fell to around 560,000 in November amid rising political tensions, before dropping further to about 530,000 in December.
Founded in 2018, China Trading Desk provides the China Outbound Travel Sentiment Survey, a regular study tracking overseas travel behaviour and sentiment among Chinese consumers.
According to the World Travel & Tourism Council, China’s tourism sector is forecast to grow by around 7 per cent annually over the next decade, contributing approximately $3.8 trillion to national GDP. By 2031, China is expected to overtake the United States to become the world’s largest travel and tourism market.
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